Notes

Outline

"Perry Miller," Perry Miller, Cropping Systems Researcher Montana State University SACA, Dec 4, 2001 Cabin Fever Jan 2, 2002 AGTCS Jan 7, 2002 Crop and Pest Management School Jan 9, 2002

Outline 1. Water Patterns Probabilities 2. Crop Water Use Efficiency Opportunistic Systems On-Time Cropping Flexing the Rotation Diversity Intensity

Presentation Goals Remind you that it will rain again some day Think about some concepts to take full advantage of water when it comes

Climate Weather in 2001? Using Havre,MT as reference point 10th driest crop year since 1918 Precipitation pattern?

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Climate Let’s take a longer view Probabilities? Soil water storage vs. Growing season rainfall

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Climate Let’s take a longer view Probabilities? How useful is stored soil water as a flex planting aid?

Crop Water Year Relationships Havre, MT 1918-2001

Climate Let’s take a longer view Year to year patterns? If dry this year, what are the odds of dry next year?

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Climate Let’s take a longer view Year to year patterns?

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Climate Let’s take a longer view Is weather getting more variable?

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Closing thoughts about the Weather It will rain again 1 in 3 years drier than normal Never been more than 3 dry years in a row at Havre, and three in a row hasn’t happened in more than 40 years! Growing season rainfall about 3x as important as what’s in the soil Rainfall in semiarid areas really variable Rainfall variation increasing? Good??

Crop Water Use efficiency Opportunistic water use No-till, good agronomic practice On-time systems: seeding date and winter crops Flexing the rotation Crop Diversity Cropping Intensity

Opportunistic Water Use No-till Duff layer? Rapid infiltration Stubble height (stripper?)

Crop Water Use efficiency Soil fertility, pest management, stand establishment, rotation interval

On-time cropping systems

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On-time cropping systems Dormant canola

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On-time cropping systems Winter broadleaves?

Flexing the rotation Using crop diversity to protect against the weather How many crop growth types do you need?

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Short-term annual forages?

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Low Intensity 50% Fallow Fal – WW – Fal – Sun – Fal – SW – Fal - Mus Mix medium and high water use crops (i.e. NOT pea or lentil) to prevent salinity Maintain 3+ year rotational interval between crops Soil erosion a concern, even in no-till No chance for “duff layer” formation Lose income in wet cycles, be prepared to flex (opportunity for low water use crops?)

Medium intensity 25 to 40% fallow Fal - WW – Len Fal-Pea-WW-Fal-Barley/Pea(forage)-Sun Still a challenge to get duff layer formed Erosion concerns following pulse crops Use soil water intelligence to flex to forage?

High Intensity 0 to 20% fallow SW-WW-Len-Sun-Fal-Bly/Pea (forage)-Can Fal-WW-SW-B/P forage-Can-WW-B/P forage-Sun Maximum risk, maximum water-use-efficiency How to get enough high residue crops in to make duff? Poor economics in dry cycles (1 in 3 years on average, often back to back drought years)

Conclusions Build opportunistic systems to make good use of water that comes Flexing cropping intensity is key Mix of rotational intensity strategies to suit risk management (maintain wide rotational interval) Crops with variable water use characteristics Forage option? Are markets more predictable than the weather?